What If . . . The Nuclear Free Mirage

By Alex Williamson

Does it matter if a country has nuclear weapons? If Brazil’s experience with nuclear weapons is any indication, the answer is no.

On Tuesday, November 3rd, Professor Jean Krasno gave a lecture entitled "Brazil's Secret Nuclear Program." Brazil is not the kind of country that one associates with a secret weapons program. It is true that Brazil is a major exporter of conventional arms. Brazil, however, would seem to be the last country that would need a nuclear weapon. It has not fought a major war in over a hundred years and it is much larger than any of its close neighbors. Nevertheless, Brazil did attempt to develop nuclear weapons.
The basic story behind the Brazilian nuclear weapons program is fascinating, chilling, and thought provoking. The Brazilians first flirted with nuclear weapons research by trying to buy World War II German uranium enrichment technology. The Americans and British tried to stop the deal but the equipment eventually made it to Brazil. The next big step in Brazil's nuclear weapons program came when Brazil acquired centrifuge enrichment technology from the Germans. The US opposed the deal between the Brazilian government and a German corporation. Publicly, Brazil agreed to purchase enrichment equipment that would not yield bomb grade material in sufficient quantities. However, the German corporation agreed to secretly supply the more potent centrifuge technology.
The program remained a secret until a reporter discovered the underground nuclear test sites in Brazil's interior. By this time, Brazil had a civilian government and the newly elected president quickly promised to terminate the project. Brazil's current administration has taken concrete steps to ensure that Brazil does not become a nuclear power. These steps, however, consist of treaties and agreements that are only as good as the government that backs them up. Brazil still has the equipment to enrich uranium to bomb grade levels. If the government wanted, it could probably build a nuclear weapon. If a military government were to return to power, Brazil could pick up where it left off.
This story seems to have a happy ending but it does raise troubling issues. One of the most worrisome aspects of this story is the manner in which Brazil acquired its nuclear technology. Why were the Germans willing to sell bomb-making technology to Brazil? One reason is that the German corporation hoped to use the Brazilian bomb project as a way to do nuclear research by proxy. After the Second World War, the Germans were prohibited from doing nuclear weapons research and possessing a nuclear arsenal. Germany, however, clearly had the technology to build an advanced nuclear device. It could not, though, because it was not permitted to research and test such a device. Helping the Brazilians build and test a bomb would provide the Germans with a blueprint of a bomb that they could use. Germany, in effect, would only have to build a bomb based on the Brazilian model if it wished to become a nuclear power on short notice.
There are many nations that believe they need nuclear weapons but are prohibited from developing and testing them. Japan is a case in point. Both the Japanese peace constitution and public sentiment have kept Japan from developing nuclear weapons. Japan also faces a potential nuclear threat from several of its neighbors. Who knows if Japan is secretly aiding a Third World country's nuclear program? Are the Japanese foolish enough not to develop the capability to deploy a nuclear arsenal?
Brazil's motives for acquiring nuclear weapons are troubling. One motive is its nuclear arms race with Argentina. National prestige also played a large part. One of the most compelling reasons, however, is the conventional superiority of the Western world. The world watched the US rout the Iraqi Army with an array of advanced weaponry. The message that many non-industrialized nations learned from the Gulf War was that only nuclear arms could deter a first world power like the US.
If Brazil's experience with nuclear weapons is any indication, there is now a powerful incentive for developing nations to acquire nuclear weapons. As more industrialized nations begin to feel the need for nuclear weapons of their own, the developing nations will find a ready source of technology. If this is the case, then it will be hard to tell who has the bomb, who does not, and who could have it tomorrow.