Spring 1997

Bangladesh's fragile democracy must face several challenges in the years to come. Conflicts between the prime minister and the leader of the opposition could shatter the progress made so far. Human rights violation and relation with India are also concerns.

The days when military rulers dominated the political scene in Bangladesh many finally be over. During the last six years, heated political discussions have not been about ambitious generals but about democratic leaders. More surprisingly, these leaders are women - Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, and her archrival, opposition leader in the Parliament Begum Khaled Zia. Wajed is the president of the Awami League, a secular party that was at the forefront of the Bangladeshi liberation movement in 1971. Zia holds the same position in the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a party with a pro-Islamic tinge. But Wajed and Zia's rivalry has more to do with a clash of personal ambitions than differences in philosophies.

In the last 25 years, violence has often erupted in Bangladesh during times of relative peace. In 1975, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first prime minister, was assassinated by young army majors only three years after he had assumed power. The next 15 years saw two military dictatorships. Finally, in 1991, the first democratic elections were held in the country, conducted by a nonpartisan supreme court justice. These elections brought Bangladesh's first women prime minister, Begum Khaleda Zia, to power. Unfortunately, endless bickering over electoral procedures between the BNP and the Awami League, brought the economy to a halt and the country to the edge of anarchy. Only a last minute decision by Prime Minister Zia to accede to overwhelming public pressure and step down saved the country from total chaos. Democratic elections were held again on June 12, 1996, and Wajed, who headed the campaign calling for Zia's resignation, emerged victorious.

Wajed's Administration

When Mujib was assassinated in 1975, most of the family was killed with him. Wajed is one of the two daughters who, travelling abroad at the time, had escaped the massacre. After Mujib's death, Wajed went into self-imposed exile in India. When she returned to Dhaka in 1981, she was unanimously elected president of the Awami League. Over the next nine years, she and Zia led a campaign o bring down the regime of Bangladesh's second military ruler, General Ershad - a campaign that eventually brought democracy to Bangladesh.

Wajed began her first term with some unorthodox moves. For the first time, opposition members of Parliament were offered spots in the cabinet. Although opposition leader, Khaleda Zia declined scornfully, several opposition members of the parliament are now involved in major policy-making decisions.

Although some fundamentalist groups claim that Islamic law does not permit a woman administrator, Wajed's gender has not been an obstacle. She is, however, facing opposition from other sources. As Wajed did in 1993, BNP parliamentary members began boycotting the Parliament in November, accusing the Speaker of the House of being partial towards the Awami League. Without the BNP, which occupies more than one-third of the seats, the parliament was ineffective for three months while Wajed negotiated with them. The BNP has recently agreed to return the parliament when Wajed promised to accept their demands. Perhaps this is because Wajed's boycott in 1993 had eventually grown into a nationwide revolt which had brought down Zia's government. Wajed can only hope that her opponent does not attempt to bring her government down in the same way.

Wajed's Vendetta

Most recently, international organizations have criticized Wajed's government. Amnesty International has begun investigating the case of Zobaida Rashid, wife of one of the conspirators in Mujib's assassination. Mrs. Rashid is being held in prison without charge and allegedly being subjected to torture. Until now, al of Mujib's killers were being protected by an indemnity ordinance, which they themselves had put in place. Soon after Wajed came to power, the Awami League dominated Parliament and repealed the ordinance, paving the way for the trials of the conspirators. Colonel Rashid (Mrs. Rashid's husband) was able to flee to Libya. Mrs. Rashid's arrest, apparently, is a retaliation for the colonel's escape.

Although Wajed's human rights record is questionable, it is essential for the sake of democracy that she completes her term as Prime Minister. All future elections will be held under neutral caretaker governments. Wajed seems committed to stepping down at the end of her term because her Awami League has been the main proponent of this method of transfer of power.

If free elections are held again in four years, chances are it will be another showdown between Wajed and Zia, the only tow leaders in the country who enjoy massive popular support. whatever lies in store for Bangladesh, one can be certain that if democracy prevails it will be matriarchal democracy for years to come.

Bangladesh's current finance minister is Shah Kibria. He is both pragmatic and optimistic about the Bangladeshi economy, commenting that "We have many weaknesses ... but there are also many silver linings." The Bangladeshi GNP is currently growing; growth rates of 4 to 6 percent over the next decade are officially expected. The government is generally optimistic about the prospects for growth, particularly in the sectors of garments, agriculture, and fisheries.

The involvement of NGOs will prove critical over the transitory period as the new government settles into office. Success hinges upon the Awami League's willingness to permit NGOs to take an active role between the new government's policies and the population at large. Projects, such as Grameen Bank's cellular telephone distribution plan, represent key initiatives toward the modernization of rural areas and villages. The innovative Grameen Bank, initially successful in extending credit and loan services to women in rural Bangladesh, is now administering a plan to connect outlying areas of the country to the capital city of Dhaka through cellular communications. Since cellular phones require less hardware than conventional phones, they are much cheaper than conventional phones.

Kibria believes that the new policies will lead to a surge of prosperity. "The previous regime took steps in the right direction," he says, "but did not follow up on them." One hopes that Kibria's optimism will translate into reality.

Mr. Husain, TD'99, is a student at Yale College.