Spring 1996

Crisis in the Aegean Sea
by John Katsarakis

The last Greek-Turkish crisis could have resulted in a new war in the East Mediterranean and the Balkans. Fortunately, a Greek would say, "no cat, no damage," relieved by the outcome of the crisis. Is there really any damage?

After the attempt of turkish Prime Minster Tansu Ciller to place the flag of her country in Imia, one of the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea, naval forces form both countries assembled in the area of Dodekanissa. However, the greek government reacted immdiately by putting back the Greek flag on the island. That night, Turkish commandos replaced their flag in a secret mission. three soldiers, passengers of a helicopter of the Greek military, died when their helicopter mysteriously disappeared at sea.

President Clinton persuaded both sides to withdraw their forces. however, the Greek Island still had the turkish flag and the Greeks felt defeated. Clinton's reluctance to support Greece and to demand that the Turkish flag be removed resulted in the emergence of anti-American feeling in both the government and the people of Greece. the Greek-American community, was disappointed by Clinton's reaction to Turkey's provocative actions against Greeece. the Greek prime Minister Costantinos Simitis, declared that he would not welcome Richard Holbrooke, Assistant Secretary of State, who was planning to visit Athens for negotiations about the Cypriot problem. With US presidential elections in mind, Clinton modified his position. Athens responded to Clinton;'s indirect support of Greece with satisfaction. Fortunatley, the confluct did not escalte into war and Greek-American relations improved after the crisis. the US might have lost an old ally, a traditionally pro-American European country who, in the future, can help in the stability in the Balkans and the Middle East..

Turkey's Close Call
by Alex Williamson

On December 24, 1995, Turkey shocked the western world when the Welfare Party, or Rifah, received the most votes in parliamentary elections. Of the 550 seats in the Trukish parliament, Welfare won 158, ruling True Path party won 135, and Mother Land won 132.

Most political analysts see the Welfare party as an Islamic fundamentalist force in a nation that prides itself on its long tradition of secularism. Welfare's leader Necmettin Erbakan, opposes NATO, the EU, and Zionism. He also wantes to renegotiate the customs union with the EU, which will open european markets to Turkish goods, whihc Prime Minister Ciler's government signed before elections.

Erbakan's anti-western rhetoric and Welfare's impressive showing in December's elections suggests thta Turkey is on the verge of abandoning its western oreitnation. Turkey, however, has a long ay to go before it becomes an Islamic fundamentalist state. Turkey's two sectarian parties, True and Mother Land, split the conservative vote that allowed Welfare to take firts place. Furthrmore, Welfare did not win enough seats to govern alone and failed to form a governing coalition. In fact, most policy analysts predict that the governing coalition will not include the Welfare Party.

Even if Welfare had won a majority, however, it probably woyld not live up to its hetoric. In local elections, Welfare candidiates did not harp on traditional Islamic fundamentalist themes. Instead, Welfare won in 27 Turkish cities including the capital city, Ankara, and the largest city, Istanbul, and promised to fight corruption, bolster public services, and clean up the environment. They delivered on these promoses but Welfare's mayors have not imposed Islamic law on their cities. Despite the harsh rhetoric of Welfare's extremists, alcohol is still plentiful in Istanbul and Turkish women do not have to wear veils. If Welfare's performance on the national level is anything like its performanc on the local level,theni it is unlikely that it will deliver on most of its more radical promises. In short, Welfare is a party that talks a lot and does a lot. fortunately for the West, what it syas and what it does are two different things.

China's Slow Road to Human Rights Reform
by Katherine Hsu

For the father of China's modern democracy movement, Wei Jingshen, 1996 looks like more of the same - iron bars and gray walls. On December 28, 1995, after a brief haitus from his 15-year sentence which began in 1979, authoirites sentenced Wei to another 14 years of prison, on charges of plotting to subvert the government.

Acording to diplomats, China has done more to silence its strugging democracy movement in 1995 by detaining more dissidents than in any year since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. Following Wei's arrest, three other political disidents appealed to the legislature for his release, and they too were taken into custody. foreign governments, including the US, France, and Germany, decried the procedures of these arrests. Although Chinese dissident Harry Wu was ablt to win his freedom through international pressure last year, Wei's prospects look dim. though well known in China, wei lacks the international reputation and protection that an American citizenship offers.

Days after Wei's sentencing, however, Beijing published a report stating that "some human rights are not so satisfactory becasue of the limitation of history and the level of development." By trying to justify its actions so soon after Wei's trial, China appears less sure of itself after all.

The People's Congress hopes that the apssage of new amendments will bring change - lawyers will have gretaer access to defendants, courtrooms will be mroe open, and the police will no longer be able to detain people without trial. these changes come none toosoon, as only 10 to 20 pecent of all judges have legal backgrounds. Perhaps the government is finally starting to see the wrongs that have suffocated the basic rights of so many peple in the past. Hopefully, these reforms will keep pace with the people's desire for change.

Tension in the Taiwan Straits
by David Drewes

Recent developments in the Taiwan Straits have unerved leaders of the island nation. Heightened tensions between the semi-autonomous Taiwan and the Communist government of mainland China jhave led the latter to conduct missile tests in the East China Sea, just 100 miles off Taiwan's shore. These tests are the Communists' retaliatory response to what they see as the Taiwanese government pressing for international recognition and even for regained status as the legitimate Chinese government.

Taiwan's economic boom in the 1980s and early 1990s stemmed from its individual political and economic freedoms, yet these freedoms seem no to be in danger. The success that Taiwan has enjoyed has led to renewed rhetoric suggesting that the island shoudl declare its complete independence from the mainland and seek internationalr eognition as the legitimate Chinese government.

Taiwan's elections, scheduled for March 23, are an important barometer of public opinion. A Hong kong newspaper has reported that a 400,000 troop militray exercise is being planned close to election day in order to intimidate the taiwanese leaders and poplace. The USS Nimitz passed through the Straits on December 19, fueling tensions between China and Taiwan. the Defense Department stated that it was a routine manuever, bt this action agitated the Chinese government even further.

The US must allow China and Taiwan to settle their own disputes. Taiwan must negotiate a treaty with China like the one offered to Hong Kong, the so called "one China, two systems" approach in which Communism would not strangle the private business sector that has made Taiwan so strong. China must not resort to violence in order to reunify with Taiwan.

American involvement in a conflict between China and Taiwan would be foolish because the Us does not recognize Taiwan as a separate nation. Rather than trying to flex its military muscle in front of the Chinese government with the USS Nimitz, the US should attempt to reconcile differences between the two parties. Self-restraint amon taiwan, China and the US must prevail.

Mitterand's Political Legacy
by Jared Zichek

Francois Mitterand, President of France from 1981 to 1995, died January 8 at the age of 79. Labeled "France's Socialist Sun King," Mitterand's passing marks the end of an era in French history. His socialisty government guided France through the final turbulent years of the COld War, leaving it with a powerful position in Europe but an uncertain future.

Mitterand was a strong leftist opponent of Charles de Gaulle, serving in 11 governmnets in various ministerial posts. He edged France closere to NATO, made French forces available to allies during the Gulf War, and advocated closer European integration , especially between Paris and Bonn. His partnership with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl strengthened France's economic situation and political reputation, whihc had been damaged by the disastrous nationalization programs of rhe early 1980s. With lower tariffs, the free movement of labor, and the powerful Deutsche mark underpinning the frnc, France has he potential to revive its former glory.

Yet socialist rule has also exposed serious weaknesses in both France and its leader. Mitterand's reputation was shaken by several governmnet financial scandals, the most serious of whihc resulted in the suicide of Primeminister Pierre Beregovoy. Heavy governmnet spending in 1981 also left Frace with an enormous deficit and a welfare state in desperate need of reform. COntroversy surrounding the Nazi-backed Vichy government still persists, with Mitterand himself becoming a target of criticism for his employment by the regome in 1942. Perhaps the most disturbing legacy of Mitterand is the lack of direction in French foreign policy, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

Current French President Jacques Chirac is working to disassemble much ofthe socialist state that Mitterand left behind. Diametrically opposed to Mitterand in personality and conviction, Chirac nonetheless honored his predecessor by declaring a national day of mourning on January 11. Chirac must contend with the problems of Mitterand's legacy that threaten to obscure his numerous achievements. History will prove the greatness of this man, however, when the European Union establishes itself as one of the leading forces of the next century. Ultimately, Mitterand's role in the formation of the EU will overshadow the controversy that plagued his political life.

Mitterand's Private Legacy
by Helen Kim

Francois Mitterand crafted his January 11 funerak as carefully as any state function. Music by Chopin and French composer Maurice Duruflé. o political speeches at either the public or private ceremonies. No reporters or cameras in the small Romanesque Churuch of St. Peter in Jarnac, where he was born. And no animoisty between his lawful family and his illegitimate family. In the funeral procession, his widow Danielle and thier two sons were followed by his mistess of 30 years. Anne Pingeot, and their daughter Mazarine.

One wonders what the two women said to each other during the flight to Jarnac - and what the two men, Jean-Christophe and Gilbert said to their half-sister. After all, Mitteran broke a tradition of silence by acknowledging Mazarine's existence in 1994. He spent Christmas with Anne and New Year's with Danielle. He pulled everything off with admirable aplomb, if not admirable morality. He proved that private lives are separate from public ones.

Sixty-one kings, queens, princes, presients, and prime minsters came to mourn Mitterand at Notre Dame, not to mention foreign ministers from 170 countries. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl shed tears for his friend and fellow European Union advocate. He lamented, "Europe has lost a great stateman." Clearly his 30-year long affair with Anne Pingeot did not impari his manageemtn of foreign affairs, nor did it harm his political acumen, whihc kept him in the presidency for 14 years. His public acknowledgement of MAzarine did not significantly injure his relations with his people, whose reaction was typically and beatuifully French in nature. "There was more shocked comment on the intrusion into his prvate life than on the propreity of his domestice arrangements," odserved the Washington Post journalist William Drozdiak. Several thousand people crowded into the square before Notre Dame to hear the amss.

Mitterand was no saint ot hero. Valuin pragmatism over grandiose ideology, he was know for reversinf opinions on issues as varied as French nuclear capability and German unification. But he will be judged for those things, not his priate affaris. For a world in which personal lives of politiciains matte lesss than their political ones, one need not look far into America's future as uch as across the Atlantic to present-day France. Merci, Monsieur.